Nobody has looked at the impending governor's races for the next two years yet, so here goes. Three state houses are up for election in 2007 with 11 more to come in 2008 (including Vermont and New Hampshire, the two states that still elect their governors to two-year terms.)
A quick rundown of the seats:
Solid R: Mississippi, North Dakota, Utah
Likely R: None
Lean R: Vermont
Tossup: Indiana, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Washington
Lean D: Kentucky, Delaware
Likely D: Montana
Solid D: New Hampshire, West Virginia
More below the fold...
MS: Gov. Haley Barbour (R) has considerable political capital built up from his handling of Hurricane Katrina and should be reelected to a second term.
ND: This is assuming Gov. John Hoeven runs for a third term. If he does, he should win easily. If he doesn't, move this race down to Lean R; the Democrats would need to find a good candidate to win. Still, after the experiences with Freudenthal in Wyoming and Schweitzer in Montana, don't write off the Dems in an open seat.
UT: It's freaking Utah.
VT: This one should be competitive, with a Republican governor sitting in a deep blue state. Jim Douglas is fairly popular, though.
IN: If you want a reason why the GOP lost three House seats in Indiana Tuesday, the unpopularity of Gov. Mitch Daniels is a good bet. Dems can win this one with a strong candidate.
LA: Unlike Barbour, Kathleen Babineaux Blanco's handling of Katrina seems to have hurt her, and the mass displacement of Democratic voters in New Orleans doesn't help. Louisiana is becoming more Republican, making this a difficult reelection for her.
MO: Matt Blunt is unpopular, and Dems apparently already have a candidate in Jay Nixon, though they might be able to do better than that. Russ Carnahan, son of the former governor, could also make this a race.
NC: With Mike Easley term-limited and (hopefully) running for the Senate, this is a tossup. Dems have a strong bench in North Carolina and should be able to find a candidate to hold the seat.
WA: Dino Rossi nearly won in 2004, will likely run again in 2008, and a recent poll showed him leading Gov. Christine Gregoire by seven points in a hypothetical 2008 matchup. Even though Washington is a blue state, it just feels like it's about time for them to elect a Republican governor.
KY: Ernie Fletcher is in trouble, and he'll likely have a rematch of his 2003 race with now-Congressman Ben Chandler challenging him in 2007. Chandler should win. However, the Kentucky GOP may also pressure Fletcher not to run to give them a chance to hold it.
DE: It's an open seat in a blue state. The only caution is that Delaware has had nothing but Dem governors over the last sixteen years, and although it's a blue state in national elections, governor's races don't always work the same way.
MT: Brian Schweitzer is very popular and should cruise. Of course, it's a red state, but Republicans would be more likely to try to unseat Max Baucus than Schweitzer.
NH: If Dem pickups in both House seats and Gov. John Lynch's 74% win in 2006 are any indicator, this state is fast trending blue. With their hands full defending John Sununu's Senate seat, Republicans are unlikely to mount much of a challenge to Lynch.
WV: West Virginia is trending red, but the Republicans still have almost no bench in the state. Joe Manchin is popular and should win reelection easily.
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